The EU consumer pays in real dollars, around, $29 per barrel of oil, monthly average from last summer. If the dollar continues its decline the price will be near E20.
The American consumer is paying around $40 per barrel oil monthly average. This week $49 per barrel.
No there is not magic or shadowy deal. It is just a simple conversion of currencies.
While the administration and everybody plus its brother, continue to make claims of a strong dollar policy. The dollar is declining at record levels. Reality and narrow-minding are not great friends.
If the dollar continues its decline, and the forecast now stands have a dollar worth 50 Cents of Euro. Can you imagine, the dollar .50 cents of Euro! The Volvo-driving-cheese-eating-French and its Europeans comrades will be paying $20 oil while loud mouth French-trashing-people and its friends on currency-pegs will be paying around $43 per barrel of oil.
In the near future it does seem possible, unless something gets seriously done, that rides to Sunday Church will have to be part of the Park & Ride system.
Someone needs to start to take stand and kick butt, to tell the truth about the economic situation.
The elected folks, specially, those in Washington; need to be send packing in the next election, no questions who no questions for what. I do not mean republican elected folks but also democrats. Sending packing means to elect any challenger in large enough numbers that they get the message to wake-up, and do other than pilfering peoples assets.
The interesting part here is, while the dollar is losing value against the Euro, no one seem to really care much; eventually, the EU will have to stop the floating of dollars at such discounted prices.
Basically, the dollar will be sold by Wal-Mart, if wisely done they might even make a profit from selling dollars, next holiday season retailers might advertise the dollar as a “closeout out, all dollars at 70% off.” “Sell today, big discounts.”
As we are aware where there is bad news we need to have good news somewhere.
The good news: the cycle needs to reverse; the bad news: “or else”
In an open market economy, strong currencies are sign of healthy and strong economy; weak currencies are a sign of weakened economies and declining influence.
Cycles in currencies of imperial powers have the tendency to lose a substantial amount of value at the most minimum resistance from outside. It is not a new event, Spain lost the value of the ducat after 500 years at its hegemonic decline their currency conversion would be the equivalent of 1/1000 to the original coin. The most recent example is the English Empire in the 1950’s. When the League of Nations sent a message to London with a very simple text: “imperialism is over, reform before we intervene” England went in free fall from India to Zimbabwe. As the “freed” colonies started their own currencies the crown direction, since then, declined in a consistent basis, today the British pound buys 1/3 of what used to buy 60 yeas ago this decline is a natural cycle of adjusting not the currency but the behavior of those controlling their currency.
Today the decline of the US dollar is in the same path, the most alarming situation is the fast and sudden decline. There is a belief of disparity economic strengths between the European and US, the reality is different. There is not such pronounced disparity. The exception is the incremental decline from US employee standard of living versus European employees. The intrinsic economic differences are not so large that is what is worrying some prominent analysts. The fallacy is catching up with reality. Some of this disparity comes from energy policies and blind acceptance of policies that do not address the reality of society.
Pumps and dumps
The equation for the oil producers is simple but includes the inclusion of high-risk lack-of-discipline of from the US Budgets disparities. The Oil rich solution, sell more oil in Europe, a market that is growing at 15% in currency terms, sell the strong euros to buy US bonds, and hope for the best, while getting pay by the American tax payers in fair interests. In that case US productivity needs to grow larger than the cost of the interests sent abroad or else!
YOU DECIDE!
Monday, January 24, 2005
Government Structures
Remembering Some Definitions
What is Fascism?
This may surprise most educated people. One of the more common government strategies today, especially in developing regions is fascism. Fascism is commonly confused with Nazism. Nazism is a political party platform that embraces a combination of a military dictatorship, socialism and fascism. It is not a government structure. Fascism is a government structure. The most notable characteristic of a fascist country is the separation and persecution or denial of equality to a specific segment of the population based upon superficial qualities or belief systems.
More than a class system, fascism specifically targets, dehumanizes and aims to destroy those it deems undesirable.
Simply stated, a fascist government always has one class of citizens that is considered superior (good) to another (bad) based upon race, creed, wealth or origin. It is possible to be both a republic and a fascist state. The preferred class lives in a republic while the oppressed class lives in a fascist state. Until the Civil Rights act of 1964, many parts of the US were Republic for whites and could be considered fascist for non-Caucasian residents. Fascism promotes legal segregation in housing, national resource allocation and employment. It provides legal justification for persecuting a specific segment of the population and operates behind a two tiered legal system. These two tiers can be overt as it was within Nazi Germany where Jews, Homosexuals, Catholics, Communists, Clergy and the handicap were held to one set of rules and courts, while the rest of Germany enjoyed different laws.
Or it can be implied and held up by consensual conspiracy, (people know it is wrong but do nothing to stop it or change it. Through lack of action, they give consent), as it was in the deep South for African Americans and others of color. In Fascism, one segment of society is always considered less desirable, sub-human or second class.
(Note: no single government is pure anything. Most have elements of several structures with one dominant structure). Below is the political definition and general characteristics of a fascist country.
General characteristics of a fascist country:
1. Fascism is commonly defined as an open terror-based dictatorship which is:
Reactionary: makes policy based upon current circumstances rather than creating policies to prevent problems; piles lies and misnomers on top of more lies until the truth becomes indistinguishable, revised or forgotten.
Chauvinistic: Two or more tiered legal systems, varying rights based upon superficial characteristics such as race, creed and origin.
Imperialist elements of finance capital: Extending a nation's authority by territorial acquisition or by the establishment of economic and political domination of one state over its allies.
Though a dictatorship is the most common association with fascism, a democracy or republic can also be fascist when it strays away from its tenants of sovereignty.
2. Fascism is an extreme measure taken by the middle classes to forestall lower-working class revolution; it thrives on the weakness of the middle classes. It accomplishes this by embracing the middle-class' love of the status-quo, its complacency and its fears of generating a united struggle within the working class revolution losing its own power and position within society
In a more simplistic term the people currently in control fear that if they allow equal rights and equal consideration to those being oppressed, they will become oppressed and lose everything. Generally those in power are of a smaller segment of society, but they hold the wealth and control of key systems like manufacturing, law, finance and government position, (i.e. the slave owners in the south prior to the civil war) and the oppressed vastly outnumber them, (the slaves during the same period).
In reality it is the oppressors' fear of retribution by the oppressed that perpetuates fascism; for justification they dehumanize, demonize, strip them of rights, add new laws, restrict movement and attempt to control them by whatever means possible to prevent an uprising. It is very common in a fascist system to have the oppressed referred to as sub-human, animals, terrorists, savages, barbarians, vermin or any other term designed to create justification for the acts of terror and fascism perpetrated on the oppressed. Via dehumanization society can then accept that the oppressed are incapable of thinking or acting in a peaceful manner or taking care of themselves, and thus society is exonerated from culpability in their own minds. Propaganda, not persuasion, logic or law, is the tool of fascism, though at times very difficult to spot. It specifically rides the fact that negative behavior is innate, (born with) rather than a logical behavior in response to oppression. Propaganda also empowers the oppressors with elitism racially, socially, intellectually and/or spiritually.
The 7 conditions (Warning signs) that foster & fuel fascism are:
Instability of capitalist relationships or markets
The existence of considerable declassed social elements
The stripping of rights and wealth focused upon a specific segment of the population, specifically the middle class and intellectuals within urban areas as this the group with the means, intelligence and ability to stop fascism if given the opportunity.
Discontent among the rural lower middle class (clerks, secretaries, white collar labor). Consistent discontent among the general middle and lower middle classes against the oppressing upper-classes (haves vs. have-nots).
Hate: Pronounced, perpetuated and accepted public disdain of a specific group defined by race, origin, theology or association.
Greed: The motivator of fascism, which is generally associated with land, space or scarce resources in the possession of those being oppressed.
Organized Propaganda:
a) The creation of social mythology that venerates (creates saints of) one element of society while concurrently vilifying (dehumanizing) another element of the population through misinformation, misdirection and the obscuring of factual matter through removal, destruction or social humiliation, (name-calling, false accusations, belittling and threats).
b) The squelching of public debate not agreeing with the popular agenda via slander, libel, threats, theft, destruction, historical revisionism and social humiliation. Journalists in particular are terrorized if they attempt to publish stories contrary to the agenda.
3. Fascism dovetails business & government sectors into a single economic unit, while concurrently increasing in-fighting and distrust between the units fostering advancement towards war.
4. a) Fascism promotes chauvinist demagogy, (appeals to the prejudices and emotions of the populace by fostering selective persecution and accepted public vilification of the target group. It then promotes this a "patriotic", "supportive" or "the party line" and disagreement with such as "anti-government", "anti-faith" or "anti-nation".
b) Fascism creates confusion through "facts". It relies on junk science, revisionism, the elimination of cultural records/treasures and obscuratinism to create its case and gain acceptance. Fascism can also combine Marxist critiques of capitalism or faith based critics of the same to re-define middle class perceptions of democracy and to force its issues, confuse logic and create majority consensus between targeted groups. This is also referred to as creating a state of Cognitive Dissonance, the mental state most human beings are easily manipulated within. TOP
5. Both middle and upper-middle-class dictated democracy and fascism are class dictatorships that use organized violence (verbal or physical) to maintain the class rule of the oppressors over the oppressed.
The difference between the two is demonstrated by the policies towards non-lower-working class classes. Fascism attains power through the substitution of one state's form of class domination with another form, generally bourgeois democracy segues into an open terrorist dictatorship.
The 14 Defining
Characteristics Of Fascism
by Dr. Lawrence Britt
Dr. Lawrence Britt has examined the fascist regimes of Hitler (Germany), Mussolini (Italy), Franco (Spain), Suharto (Indonesia) and several Latin American regimes. Britt found 14 defining characteristics common to each:
1. Powerful and Continuing Nationalism -
Fascist regimes tend to make constant use of patriotic mottos, slogans, symbols, songs, and other paraphernalia. Flags are seen everywhere, as are flag symbols on clothing and in public displays. TOP
2. Disdain for the Recognition of Human Rights -
Because of fear of enemies and the need for security, the people in fascist regimes are persuaded that human rights can be ignored in certain cases because of "need." The people tend to look the other way or even approve of torture, summary executions, assassinations, long incarcerations of prisoners, etc. TOP
3. Identification of Enemies/Scapegoats as a Unifying Cause -
The people are rallied into a unifying patriotic frenzy over the need to eliminate a perceived common threat or foe: racial , ethnic or religious minorities; liberals; communists; socialists, terrorists, etc. TOP
4. Supremacy of the Military -
Even when there are widespread domestic problems, the military is given a disproportionate amount of government funding, and the domestic agenda is neglected. Soldiers and military service are glamorized. TOP
5. Rampant Sexism -
The governments of fascist nations tend to be almost exclusively male-dominated. Under fascist regimes, traditional gender roles are made more rigid. Divorce, abortion and homo-sexuality are suppressed and the state is represented as the ultimate guardian of the family institution. TOP
6. Controlled Mass Media -
Sometimes to media is directly controlled by the government, but in other cases, the media is indirectly controlled by government regulation, or sympathetic media spokespeople and executives. Censorship, especially in war time, is very common. TOP
7. Obsession with National Security -
Fear is used as a motivational tool by the government over the masses. TOP
8. Religion and Government are Intertwined -
Governments in fascist nations tend to use the most common religion in the nation as a tool to manipulate public opinion. Religious rhetoric and terminology is common from government leaders, even when the major tenets of the religion are diametrically opposed to the government's policies or actions. TOP
9. Corporate Power is Protected -
The industrial and business aristocracy of a fascist nation often are the ones who put the government leaders into power, creating a mutually beneficial business/government relationship and power elite. TOP
10. Labor Power is Suppressed -
Because the organizing power of labor is the only real threat to a fascist government, labor unions are either eliminated entirely, or are severely suppressed. TOP
11. Disdain for Intellectuals and the Arts -
Fascist nations tend to promote and tolerate open hostility to higher education, and academia. It is not uncommon for professors and other academics to be censored or even arrested. Free expression in the arts and letters is openly attacked. TOP
12. Obsession with Crime and Punishment -
Under fascist regimes, the police are given almost limitless power to enforce laws. The people are often willing to overlook police abuses and even forego civil liberties in the name of patriotism. There is often a national police force with virtually unlimited power in fascist nations.
13. Rampant Cronyism and Corruption -
Fascist regimes almost always are governed by groups of friends and associates who appoint each other to government positions and use governmental power and authority to protect their friends from accountability. It is not uncommon in fascist regimes for national resources and even treasures to be appropriated or even outright stolen by government leaders. TOP
14. Fraudulent Elections -
Sometimes elections in fascist nations are a complete sham. Other times elections are manipulated by smear campaigns against or even assassination of opposition candidates, use of legislation to control voting numbers or political district boundaries, and manipulation of the media. Fascist nations also typically use their judiciaries to manipulate or control elections.
Additional Reading....
1) They Thought They Were Free, By Milton Mayer
"They Thought They Were Free: The Germans 1933-1945", University of Chicago Press. Reissued in paperback, April, 1981. As Harpers Magazine noted when the book was published in 1955 (U. of Chicago), Milton Mayer’s extraordinarily far-sighted book on the Germans is more timely today than ever.
2) This is not an endorsement of Socialism or Communism, which are fundamentally at odds with the US Constitution. However, reading some of the works on Fascism during the 1920's & 1930's in Europe by members of the Communist and Socialist parties will provide you with additional insights. You may want to start with: Fascism: What it is and How to Fight it by Leon Trotsky
Related Articles:
The Roadmap to Peace:
Disarm the True Enemy, Hatred
Emotional Blackmail, Cognitive Dissonance, the Media
& the Middle East
Watch out for the Blaming:
Watch out for the hate
Protecting Yourself
from Emotional Blackmail
What you can do to minimize the effects on you
POLITICAL SATIRE: Goat Politics
How do you know you are being SPUN?
Color Profiling or Racial Profiling? What is the Difference? CAPPS II and Trusted Traveler
Definitions
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bourgeois (aka middle classes (n)): the social class between the lower and upper classes: Middle Class TOP
Imperialism (n): The policy of extending a nation's authority by territorial acquisition or by the establishment of economic and political domination of one state over its allies and over other nations. 2: The system, policies, or practices of such a government. TOP
Demagogy (n): Impassioned appeals to the prejudices and emotions of the populace TOP
Obscurantism (n):
The principles or practice of delivering vague truths and hiding key facts.
A policy of withholding information from the public.
The act of lying through selective omission
Tyranny (n):
A form of government in which the ruler is an absolute dictator and is not restricted by a constitution, laws or opposition etc.
Dominance over a populous through threat of punishment, terrorism, oppression and violence
Autocracy (n):
Government by a single person having unlimited power; tyranny, dictator.
A country or state that is governed by a single person with unlimited power.
Saturday, January 22, 2005
Where is the 5% Mr. Newt?
Solidly speaking Mr. Newt Gingrich asserts: "People will do better if they put their social security taxes, in private accounts."
To support his social security strategy he claims: “If you put those Social Security dollars in the stock market you will receive an average of 5%.”
Caveat emptor, that’s just an average, out of someone’s sleeve based in some portfolio theory. The key word is “theory” no a fact.
The actual average after inflation for a basket of investments, as the deconstructionists propose, is less than 2.9% considering the past as a solid proof of the future.
If anyone finds me a mutual fund or any other investment that says: past performance is an indication of future results, pronto call me. I need some hedging, for the present risk. If you are a speculator and, lucky enough to start to collect money as a secure investment after you give your money to those private accounts, beware of the dogs and hidden fees, if it is too good to be true, most likely is not that good.
These charges of Social Security returns are into the future, the risk is inherent to major fluctuations. Remember 2000, the 50% decline in the stock market of the bond market melt down what about those 2.5% treasuries. By the way there is not free open market for bonds, or Treasuries. So how do I get those 5% reinvested: no from 5% annual fees at managed funds, no at a market risk of 37% as it is now, no from the present laws and proposed solutions.
Mr. Newt can you insure me that 5%?
If someone guarantees via a national policy those 5% after taxes and fees returns, then we are talking money. Without that we are talking pilfering scheme. Welcome Mr. Ponzi!
Well, I am willing to hear soemthing cretive, if Mr. Newt and his cohorts support legislation that secures a 5% return no matter what the crooks walking up and down Wall Street, including, corrupt CEO’s and other thieves that plunder hard working dollars from most people, do with the trusted money.
I most likely support the cut of forced taxes into social security if he crosses for once the line and supports a balanced policy for small investors.
If Mr. Newt and his compadres, include legislation that respects people’s assets, punish those that rob from people’ investment, similarly to, the way punish thieves in stores. Then we have a starting point. As stablsihed right ow we backrubbing laws, that's not encouraging, to take further step.
At the end of the day folks that improperly manage and out right rob money from people’ accounts should pay even a large price for their malfeasant behavior. Now we have the slap in the arm offer by a system run by their buddies. We need the buddy system out (nepotism) we need capitalism in. All this offer looks to me more of a Marxist proposal than a betterment of society. I will support all this deconstructionist views of the present system if it includes strong individual support laws.
If they support legislation that restitutes to society the cost incurred, as the damage above mentioned crooks have done, and restitution of costs ineherent to rebuild the social cost, still is a maybe for me. This legislation of support to individuals should include the cost to restitute tax payers from the crooks costs while on jail, the cost to service the courts, the full restitution to the legitimate owners of the capital destroyed, and a full disgorgement from those in trust or employee that are found or agreed to, in back room deals, no to be prosecuted and claim no wrong doing.
Less thatn this kind of support to individuals is a continuation of class warfare from the industrialist, political and intellectual elites to destroy the assets of most Americans.
I support Mr. Newt's views if he supports everybody, not only a very few already very well off and ready to plunder our money with dark fees and market manipulations, where the turth is more difficult to encounter than an octopus in Central Park.
Let’s be realistic a combination of bonds, stocks and treasuries, no one can guarantee 5% return no even 1% or even negative 20%.
I will be waiting for Mr. Newt and his Politburo to find anyone, for that matter anyone else interested , who has a guarantee on returns, I am willing open consideration of this too white-lily solution. In the mean time all this smells another Enron deed.
We will be extraordinarily better if the government takes the forced social security taxes, administer in the open market via a government agency that is accountable to all citizens with real assets that produce market returns. For example real accountable enterprising in the likes of Freddy Mac, in which individuals have seats in the board of directors and set the management accountable and share responsibility of those assets. With strict accountability procedures, fair pay to employees and a Board of Directors with term limits and management rotation. I am more comfortable with real assets, than with “wet paper” from Wall Street.
Where is the 5% Mr. Newt?
I forced myself to fund my own pension plan, because the harsh realization of a weak social structure, riddled with over taxation targeted to the mid and lower income earners, with a future retirement years, looking darker that I wanted to live. I found it to be no far from slave live of endless hours of work that deteriorated quality of life and eliminate joyous hours of family life, to save for a good future, to be no a fair solution for living in a super economy.
Considering the amount of taxes that I pay I expected a better cushion as a member of an advanced society. I do not expect dollars from the Social Security system to be a panacea, but many compatriots are not as lucky as I was during my working life, and social security income should be to provide above decent end years on life.
The dismantling the present system can create the largest pool of poor citizens in the western world and its consequences are not pleasant.
To support his social security strategy he claims: “If you put those Social Security dollars in the stock market you will receive an average of 5%.”
Caveat emptor, that’s just an average, out of someone’s sleeve based in some portfolio theory. The key word is “theory” no a fact.
The actual average after inflation for a basket of investments, as the deconstructionists propose, is less than 2.9% considering the past as a solid proof of the future.
If anyone finds me a mutual fund or any other investment that says: past performance is an indication of future results, pronto call me. I need some hedging, for the present risk. If you are a speculator and, lucky enough to start to collect money as a secure investment after you give your money to those private accounts, beware of the dogs and hidden fees, if it is too good to be true, most likely is not that good.
These charges of Social Security returns are into the future, the risk is inherent to major fluctuations. Remember 2000, the 50% decline in the stock market of the bond market melt down what about those 2.5% treasuries. By the way there is not free open market for bonds, or Treasuries. So how do I get those 5% reinvested: no from 5% annual fees at managed funds, no at a market risk of 37% as it is now, no from the present laws and proposed solutions.
Mr. Newt can you insure me that 5%?
If someone guarantees via a national policy those 5% after taxes and fees returns, then we are talking money. Without that we are talking pilfering scheme. Welcome Mr. Ponzi!
Well, I am willing to hear soemthing cretive, if Mr. Newt and his cohorts support legislation that secures a 5% return no matter what the crooks walking up and down Wall Street, including, corrupt CEO’s and other thieves that plunder hard working dollars from most people, do with the trusted money.
I most likely support the cut of forced taxes into social security if he crosses for once the line and supports a balanced policy for small investors.
If Mr. Newt and his compadres, include legislation that respects people’s assets, punish those that rob from people’ investment, similarly to, the way punish thieves in stores. Then we have a starting point. As stablsihed right ow we backrubbing laws, that's not encouraging, to take further step.
At the end of the day folks that improperly manage and out right rob money from people’ accounts should pay even a large price for their malfeasant behavior. Now we have the slap in the arm offer by a system run by their buddies. We need the buddy system out (nepotism) we need capitalism in. All this offer looks to me more of a Marxist proposal than a betterment of society. I will support all this deconstructionist views of the present system if it includes strong individual support laws.
If they support legislation that restitutes to society the cost incurred, as the damage above mentioned crooks have done, and restitution of costs ineherent to rebuild the social cost, still is a maybe for me. This legislation of support to individuals should include the cost to restitute tax payers from the crooks costs while on jail, the cost to service the courts, the full restitution to the legitimate owners of the capital destroyed, and a full disgorgement from those in trust or employee that are found or agreed to, in back room deals, no to be prosecuted and claim no wrong doing.
Less thatn this kind of support to individuals is a continuation of class warfare from the industrialist, political and intellectual elites to destroy the assets of most Americans.
I support Mr. Newt's views if he supports everybody, not only a very few already very well off and ready to plunder our money with dark fees and market manipulations, where the turth is more difficult to encounter than an octopus in Central Park.
Let’s be realistic a combination of bonds, stocks and treasuries, no one can guarantee 5% return no even 1% or even negative 20%.
I will be waiting for Mr. Newt and his Politburo to find anyone, for that matter anyone else interested , who has a guarantee on returns, I am willing open consideration of this too white-lily solution. In the mean time all this smells another Enron deed.
We will be extraordinarily better if the government takes the forced social security taxes, administer in the open market via a government agency that is accountable to all citizens with real assets that produce market returns. For example real accountable enterprising in the likes of Freddy Mac, in which individuals have seats in the board of directors and set the management accountable and share responsibility of those assets. With strict accountability procedures, fair pay to employees and a Board of Directors with term limits and management rotation. I am more comfortable with real assets, than with “wet paper” from Wall Street.
Where is the 5% Mr. Newt?
I forced myself to fund my own pension plan, because the harsh realization of a weak social structure, riddled with over taxation targeted to the mid and lower income earners, with a future retirement years, looking darker that I wanted to live. I found it to be no far from slave live of endless hours of work that deteriorated quality of life and eliminate joyous hours of family life, to save for a good future, to be no a fair solution for living in a super economy.
Considering the amount of taxes that I pay I expected a better cushion as a member of an advanced society. I do not expect dollars from the Social Security system to be a panacea, but many compatriots are not as lucky as I was during my working life, and social security income should be to provide above decent end years on life.
The dismantling the present system can create the largest pool of poor citizens in the western world and its consequences are not pleasant.
Saturday, January 15, 2005
Unemployed, It Depends Who Counts
Measurement of unemployment data is no-standardized around the globe.
Straight comparison of net numbers equates to a disparate way of impossible parity. It's as opposite as comparing random surveys versus mandatory agency fillings in most cases.
Now, it is not possible to compare data from one country to another. Adjustments of data requires substantial amount of labor, and in most cases, anyone in such work has it well keep under lock.
A macro-economist formulating global economic changes will adjust the official reported job numbers differently. No a very helpful way to give some light to the issue and create opinion. A good potion to be biased.
A realist will adjust unemployment numbers with a plus 4.0 from the official US job report, with seasonal adjustments, for the EU employment numbers with add a plus 0.7 with no seasonal adjustments. The subject is difficult and it will not be resolved. But the reality is, the EU uses very tight measurements for employment stats and the labor department in the US plays it by ear when it pleases an it is convenient.
Work in the subject of labor statistics around the globe is available at Harvard U, and the Chicago U Economics web sites for anyone to read it.
A “cute” example, Mexico claims 3% unemployment rate. Using the same suggested measures by their USDL. One wonders, how Mexico gets to that number? Magic, anyone working 5 hours a month is considered employ for that month.
Go figure, low unemployment in Mexico!!!!
If that's not an incentive to cross the Rio Grande in search of more than 5 hours a month. I wonder what it is. Mexico continues ot report 3.5% unemployment rate and no one steps up and says: 19%.
I Play By Ear This One.
The US the employment data is a survey done by phone to a group of interested parties, HR departments, corporate executive opinions, household opinions, and the DOL databank from the employment offices.
The job creation data is a measure of phone calls made to a sample of variables. After all that, it becomes an opinion weighted as opinion and reported as secure and empirical. Well, who knew, we make the employment number as we please fit!!!
Basically, and mildly put, a questionable way to account for those individuals out of a job, or a perfect tool to deceive, and a faulty way to compare data.
A pseudo-fact straight out of official bean counter’ mills.
Some assert, good enough to be measured against self deception.
Really worthless, if the raw data is compared against other empirical data from places as France using unrelated sources and totally well register and tabulated system. The results for USDL might as well be used for manure talk.
It is far to raise questions about the validity of the survey method. As a measure of empirical validity, further more, to compare local data with a global economy, is more or less dangeorus sausage making.
The global employment information affects economies more than ever. Accuracy of data cost big tax payers money and it is big business and should be reliable.
If the survey is done in a politically sensitive area, the data can have a margin or error, some say, the margin is too great to be fully reliable (of up to 5 points), as we are experiencing in latest reports.
Overall, the survey tries to do a good sampling with poor input.
It does not imply a thing. As the data is presently gathered; equals as, a person telling someone something. Some economists in “sotto voce” call this type of accounting method: story telling.
After all, estimates are easy to manipulate using different geographical areas or targeted groups. Again, this process is not under scrutiny economists, conveniently only a few are taking stand and question the politburo, but they are not given national forum to be heard.
It is disturbing, the constant finding of large gaps in variances in the data as they release teh numbers month after month.
The latest accuracy "tasty" results; are not encouraging, where are actuarial experts? Bean counters should be for accuracy and no some bogus abstraction. The latest findings indicate this released of data opinions are biased.
Most peeple feel, this is based in political interests. It will be fair to tell those actuarial experts releasingthe numnbers, welcome to Arnold's word.....BABY.
If politics continues to distort reliable numbers, continues to affect policy decisions. It is becoming a little too late to correct anything created by spinners. Hubris is not a good recipe for penitence.
The next comment represents a fair example how reality works.
In the US, if a person is out of a job for 26 weeks; normal time to be unemployed in many high tech jobs. Specially, while these knowledge intensive jobs are getting one way trip to Bangalore and Shangai. The DOL unemployment roll does not account anyone after those 26 weeks. Adjustments are made internally but not reported as a continued unemployed individual. Another one no in teh count, a person receiving income assistance, no under disability but because of family or poverty situation, does not account as unemployed.
Let's take the state of Kansas, the state claims 8.2% of the population are under different income assistance programs. More than half of those individuals do not have a job. Those individuals are not accounted as unemployed.
If you take the US unemployment numbers and techniques of gathering this data, and compare it to EC labor numbers, it will put Kansas with an unemployment rate of 14.8%, no adjusted for seasonality.
The discrepancies are clear comparing one system to account employment versus other.
Until civilized governments agree in one standard, for accuracy and good global government shake. Each country accounting method can be compared only to itself. Unless, you are in Italy, then might as well drink a good amount of grappa, and come up with a number.
If we take Germany, this is an example of well organized system.
The comparison of Germany's unemployment rate with the US, as is constantly reported in the news and by spin-masters is a totally an erroneous linear approach.
Germany mandates filling with the employement agency to all individuals and companies to apply for assitance. The incentive is to receive health care, and a decent and good salary while in transition; to receive a basic 18 months of salary and health care benefit coverage while unemployed, the individual must be enrolled at the LB office.
After the max 2 years period the individual still needs to present himself to the employment agency and be coutned. Unless, the individual becomes incapacitated to labor -the law makes small exceptions but in general it's how it works-.
It is in the German worker interest to follow the procedure, and all is done with a classic German seriousness of sophisticated control. Small offices in most townships are mandated to keep extreme accurate numbers and ntional statistics continue to be serious bussines in Germany.
A German worker losing a job, until it reaches the age of 65 will be accounted as unemployed, or until it fins a job. I know some changes are taking place, with a rigorous accounting method and admirable efficiency. If changes are substantial, we will hear it from German citizens.
Imagine, a German worker gets up to 65% of its salary for the first year, if it becomes unemployed, as it happens to many Germans. Yeahaa!!! 65% of their employment earnings! With this kind of benefits, you can bet workers will file for unemployment benefits for the full period.
Next, time you hear a pundit comparing economies, see it yourself or live with their fallacies. The reality is much different than what most people think. Western Europe (except England) and the US have one thing that is different, it is the risk implied in the future of individuals, you can create a stable future in Europe, US citizens cannot say the same anymore, in the US the industrialist elite has waged a class war and won. The rest is as similar as Main Streets USA.
Those generous benefits cost the paper to print. This money appeats in the system very fast.
Straight comparison of net numbers equates to a disparate way of impossible parity. It's as opposite as comparing random surveys versus mandatory agency fillings in most cases.
Now, it is not possible to compare data from one country to another. Adjustments of data requires substantial amount of labor, and in most cases, anyone in such work has it well keep under lock.
A macro-economist formulating global economic changes will adjust the official reported job numbers differently. No a very helpful way to give some light to the issue and create opinion. A good potion to be biased.
A realist will adjust unemployment numbers with a plus 4.0 from the official US job report, with seasonal adjustments, for the EU employment numbers with add a plus 0.7 with no seasonal adjustments. The subject is difficult and it will not be resolved. But the reality is, the EU uses very tight measurements for employment stats and the labor department in the US plays it by ear when it pleases an it is convenient.
Work in the subject of labor statistics around the globe is available at Harvard U, and the Chicago U Economics web sites for anyone to read it.
A “cute” example, Mexico claims 3% unemployment rate. Using the same suggested measures by their USDL. One wonders, how Mexico gets to that number? Magic, anyone working 5 hours a month is considered employ for that month.
Go figure, low unemployment in Mexico!!!!
If that's not an incentive to cross the Rio Grande in search of more than 5 hours a month. I wonder what it is. Mexico continues ot report 3.5% unemployment rate and no one steps up and says: 19%.
I Play By Ear This One.
The US the employment data is a survey done by phone to a group of interested parties, HR departments, corporate executive opinions, household opinions, and the DOL databank from the employment offices.
The job creation data is a measure of phone calls made to a sample of variables. After all that, it becomes an opinion weighted as opinion and reported as secure and empirical. Well, who knew, we make the employment number as we please fit!!!
Basically, and mildly put, a questionable way to account for those individuals out of a job, or a perfect tool to deceive, and a faulty way to compare data.
A pseudo-fact straight out of official bean counter’ mills.
Some assert, good enough to be measured against self deception.
Really worthless, if the raw data is compared against other empirical data from places as France using unrelated sources and totally well register and tabulated system. The results for USDL might as well be used for manure talk.
It is far to raise questions about the validity of the survey method. As a measure of empirical validity, further more, to compare local data with a global economy, is more or less dangeorus sausage making.
The global employment information affects economies more than ever. Accuracy of data cost big tax payers money and it is big business and should be reliable.
If the survey is done in a politically sensitive area, the data can have a margin or error, some say, the margin is too great to be fully reliable (of up to 5 points), as we are experiencing in latest reports.
Overall, the survey tries to do a good sampling with poor input.
It does not imply a thing. As the data is presently gathered; equals as, a person telling someone something. Some economists in “sotto voce” call this type of accounting method: story telling.
After all, estimates are easy to manipulate using different geographical areas or targeted groups. Again, this process is not under scrutiny economists, conveniently only a few are taking stand and question the politburo, but they are not given national forum to be heard.
It is disturbing, the constant finding of large gaps in variances in the data as they release teh numbers month after month.
The latest accuracy "tasty" results; are not encouraging, where are actuarial experts? Bean counters should be for accuracy and no some bogus abstraction. The latest findings indicate this released of data opinions are biased.
Most peeple feel, this is based in political interests. It will be fair to tell those actuarial experts releasingthe numnbers, welcome to Arnold's word.....BABY.
If politics continues to distort reliable numbers, continues to affect policy decisions. It is becoming a little too late to correct anything created by spinners. Hubris is not a good recipe for penitence.
The next comment represents a fair example how reality works.
In the US, if a person is out of a job for 26 weeks; normal time to be unemployed in many high tech jobs. Specially, while these knowledge intensive jobs are getting one way trip to Bangalore and Shangai. The DOL unemployment roll does not account anyone after those 26 weeks. Adjustments are made internally but not reported as a continued unemployed individual. Another one no in teh count, a person receiving income assistance, no under disability but because of family or poverty situation, does not account as unemployed.
Let's take the state of Kansas, the state claims 8.2% of the population are under different income assistance programs. More than half of those individuals do not have a job. Those individuals are not accounted as unemployed.
If you take the US unemployment numbers and techniques of gathering this data, and compare it to EC labor numbers, it will put Kansas with an unemployment rate of 14.8%, no adjusted for seasonality.
The discrepancies are clear comparing one system to account employment versus other.
Until civilized governments agree in one standard, for accuracy and good global government shake. Each country accounting method can be compared only to itself. Unless, you are in Italy, then might as well drink a good amount of grappa, and come up with a number.
If we take Germany, this is an example of well organized system.
The comparison of Germany's unemployment rate with the US, as is constantly reported in the news and by spin-masters is a totally an erroneous linear approach.
Germany mandates filling with the employement agency to all individuals and companies to apply for assitance. The incentive is to receive health care, and a decent and good salary while in transition; to receive a basic 18 months of salary and health care benefit coverage while unemployed, the individual must be enrolled at the LB office.
After the max 2 years period the individual still needs to present himself to the employment agency and be coutned. Unless, the individual becomes incapacitated to labor -the law makes small exceptions but in general it's how it works-.
It is in the German worker interest to follow the procedure, and all is done with a classic German seriousness of sophisticated control. Small offices in most townships are mandated to keep extreme accurate numbers and ntional statistics continue to be serious bussines in Germany.
A German worker losing a job, until it reaches the age of 65 will be accounted as unemployed, or until it fins a job. I know some changes are taking place, with a rigorous accounting method and admirable efficiency. If changes are substantial, we will hear it from German citizens.
Imagine, a German worker gets up to 65% of its salary for the first year, if it becomes unemployed, as it happens to many Germans. Yeahaa!!! 65% of their employment earnings! With this kind of benefits, you can bet workers will file for unemployment benefits for the full period.
Next, time you hear a pundit comparing economies, see it yourself or live with their fallacies. The reality is much different than what most people think. Western Europe (except England) and the US have one thing that is different, it is the risk implied in the future of individuals, you can create a stable future in Europe, US citizens cannot say the same anymore, in the US the industrialist elite has waged a class war and won. The rest is as similar as Main Streets USA.
Those generous benefits cost the paper to print. This money appeats in the system very fast.
Tuesday, January 11, 2005
China, China of them all!
The latest incense burning at the Buddha altar is made of slow burning materials.
At least those are the wished from the latest economic actions at the crown of China. The Chinese crown wants to slow down everything, just a little. In the present days of high power speculation, this slow down can turn into a surprising strong sell-off in the basic materials and natural resources areas.
If that is to occur I see a little of chaos and panic from Chinese elites. This could turn out to be a well timed event to invest in natural resources. Specially, anything that is basic for consumers and manufacturing.
It will be a first when a government cooks up some economic formulation and turns out that it works as touted. The Chinese elites might have learned a few tricks from A. Greenspan but the lessons should be clear. In the US people live under debt service. Mortgaging people’s lives is a way of live.
Chinese are savers and want to retain their assets as any other individuals with assets. Moreover, as a Chinese it is shameful to have to resort to debt to engage yourself in hedonistic behavior. The Chinese government might intent something different to comply with economic whishes of other countries, but might need the army to stop the possible consequences, this time around it could be, the army will have to come to the streets not to fight students but to fight its middle class, if the slow down takes a sudden dip. Time will tell. In the mean time, the slow down will be similar to a dot.com event. Olympics are coming to China in 2008 and the whole budget impact will touch $10 Billion with a big B. Too much for an organized long term slow down. You cannot serve Olympics and economic slow down in the same plate the same years. Much less plausible is willingness to destroy the amount of equity float Chinese companies have in global markets. It might bleep, but “What’s the bleep.”
At least those are the wished from the latest economic actions at the crown of China. The Chinese crown wants to slow down everything, just a little. In the present days of high power speculation, this slow down can turn into a surprising strong sell-off in the basic materials and natural resources areas.
If that is to occur I see a little of chaos and panic from Chinese elites. This could turn out to be a well timed event to invest in natural resources. Specially, anything that is basic for consumers and manufacturing.
It will be a first when a government cooks up some economic formulation and turns out that it works as touted. The Chinese elites might have learned a few tricks from A. Greenspan but the lessons should be clear. In the US people live under debt service. Mortgaging people’s lives is a way of live.
Chinese are savers and want to retain their assets as any other individuals with assets. Moreover, as a Chinese it is shameful to have to resort to debt to engage yourself in hedonistic behavior. The Chinese government might intent something different to comply with economic whishes of other countries, but might need the army to stop the possible consequences, this time around it could be, the army will have to come to the streets not to fight students but to fight its middle class, if the slow down takes a sudden dip. Time will tell. In the mean time, the slow down will be similar to a dot.com event. Olympics are coming to China in 2008 and the whole budget impact will touch $10 Billion with a big B. Too much for an organized long term slow down. You cannot serve Olympics and economic slow down in the same plate the same years. Much less plausible is willingness to destroy the amount of equity float Chinese companies have in global markets. It might bleep, but “What’s the bleep.”
Sunday, January 09, 2005
Moving To The Center
The latest empty blaming idea for democrat’s self-flagellation is “the democrats lost because they did not move to the center that is where the country is.”
“Ya’ll knaw wa! Ain’t na centa!”
As a simple exercise let’s measure center using alphabet from a-to-z.
The classic linear description looks as “abcdefghijklmnpqrstuvwyz” and the center will be around “lmn” now if we decided, the measure should start at “lmn” this is what the Democratic Leadership council advocates at the helm Joe Lieberman, Bill Clinton and now join by the New Democrats lead by Simon Rosenberg. They want to move the yard stick to the right extreme. That’s their choice and why most people think the democrats are republican light. Following the extremist advocated argument, the center is not “lmn” the center shifts starting at the right of “lmn” their center is now “rst” at best if not at “uvw” which is a totally different language, a totally different set of altered values, and very dangerous place to be if we measure anything in life in such extremes. The progressive majority must proof to have the backbone to get involved and work towards the real center or we just decide extremists must reign unaccountable, and the regressives must rule.
Choices are made with actions, making every vote count and get others votes to count equally is essential, held elected folks accountable and uncover the corrupt polices and stop the class war fare weighted by the elite republicans and democrats alike towards the rest of the citizens.
We can be in the center or in the extreme of centers. The choice is ours, each one of us needs to speak up to move it where advancement takes place or regress to the extremes. The consequences although no obvious at naked eye, they are dangerous. History is not kind when people is blinded by extremists.
“Ya’ll knaw wa! Ain’t na centa!”
As a simple exercise let’s measure center using alphabet from a-to-z.
The classic linear description looks as “abcdefghijklmnpqrstuvwyz” and the center will be around “lmn” now if we decided, the measure should start at “lmn” this is what the Democratic Leadership council advocates at the helm Joe Lieberman, Bill Clinton and now join by the New Democrats lead by Simon Rosenberg. They want to move the yard stick to the right extreme. That’s their choice and why most people think the democrats are republican light. Following the extremist advocated argument, the center is not “lmn” the center shifts starting at the right of “lmn” their center is now “rst” at best if not at “uvw” which is a totally different language, a totally different set of altered values, and very dangerous place to be if we measure anything in life in such extremes. The progressive majority must proof to have the backbone to get involved and work towards the real center or we just decide extremists must reign unaccountable, and the regressives must rule.
Choices are made with actions, making every vote count and get others votes to count equally is essential, held elected folks accountable and uncover the corrupt polices and stop the class war fare weighted by the elite republicans and democrats alike towards the rest of the citizens.
We can be in the center or in the extreme of centers. The choice is ours, each one of us needs to speak up to move it where advancement takes place or regress to the extremes. The consequences although no obvious at naked eye, they are dangerous. History is not kind when people is blinded by extremists.
Thursday, January 06, 2005
Half Billion People Waiting to Shop
“3.4 Billion People” live in the Asia Pacific area. Many are waiting their turn to jump into the consumer based economy. No all of this folks will be able to afford most of the products they import or produce. But many will become the next “mortgage” to the economic wheel. The upcoming sifhts need adjustments.
The aging countries will be looking at trimming working people’s benefits and increase dividends from investments.
Another reality will be: the disastrous economic policies and influence been supported from the IMF, WB and WTO agreements. Clearly biased the agrement are biased to favor mega consolidation in corporate structure, simulating the mega corporations of Russian despotic and authoritarian caliber. The proportionality of distribution of capital and access to economic developments will be limited. Specially, affects citizens eager for democracy. These influences, hopefully, while they are growing, the emerging economies will be able to be more adaptive and efficient than the old word econmies with risk averse directives.
The wealth distribution will continue its link to education and circles of nepotism. As past history reminds us and hold its truth over centuries. We can assume one tenth of this group will have access to the majority of what it is produced, the other ninety per cent will produce at a discount, benefiting even a smaller group. This reality has a very solid base in the present transactional system. One of the most evident is class warfare, laws that benefit very small groups, usually those who control the assets. But, it has diverse shapes, and the one will affect emerging markets will more similar to a medieval system. The one-tenth imposed to farmers from privileged-granted owners, higher taxation to lower earners or tithe will be more similar. The stated formula affects individuals in all economies. It will be safe to say, three hundred million people will enter this process in the next five years in the AP area, and another 100 million in diverse areas of the EC as the EU evolves. A new consideration is the integration in Latin America, and it seems to start to take place. The United States of Latin America is getting into shape.
This is at least a twenty year boom for those uniting into a borderless single market!
If growth continues at present rates of five to ten percent of gross domestic product in emerging markets, and its wealth distribution follows present patterns, this is a very solid argument for investors to buy into the equation.
What opportunities this represents to a dollar investor.
I briefly address what I consider to be above average return versus the US overall markets.
These are my top three for the next 20 years:
1) Raw materials, global demand in commodities from the growing, establish or diminishing economies will continue, incremental demand in the emerging markets area will increase producer profitability for the next two decades. The choice here will be to target a five percent of a portfolio in places like I-shares (IGE). To increment the returns, add a five percent from strong companies from the countries in which commodities are a major source of income as Australia, South Africa, Canada and Brazil, for a total of 10 ten percent of any allocation.
2) Energy consumption will continue to increase at above average levels. Crude Oil will continue to be the energy of choice due to its established roots, plus the secondary products from oil, as plastic materials will continue to be the product of choice in 70% of consumer items. Electric energy production from alternative sources is increasing in Europe, this increase will only reduce the construction of nuclear and probably natural gas plants, but it can take another decade until starts to make a dent. In addition, around the planet goals in alternative energy production are too small.
My choice here goes to Canada, specially the energy trusts, with strong leverages and good tract records paying to trust holder dividends for risk.
To complement Canada I will add China and India oil companies a non-managed fund such as i-Shares of the Dow Jones energy sector IYE, or the Spiders XLE, the beta and pricing in both baskets, are not that divergent, the Dow Jones, due to the larger sponsorship has a slight advantage over the S&P Spiders. Again this puts a currency fluctuation in the portfolio, with a ten percent allocation, makes for a riskier investment that can be compensated by re-investing the dividends from the trusts.
The risk on trust is large and fluctuations in share value can run as high as fifty percent.
3) Growing Global Economies, it might see redundant, localized investment in the areas of growth, it is my assessment it can produce above average returns. China, India and Brazil will be the three majors to invest for growth, if the EU starts to expand some smaller countries of the EU sphere, will low wages and competitive inside the euro market will be also a good choice. A non-managed fund for each country with addition of the top three companies in each country, it is my opinion will provide above average returns over the next two decades. Again this indicates a vote in a dollar that will continue to pay the price of poor US fiscal discipline. Everything has a limit and the dollar at $0.75 to the Euro has reached a substantial low limit.
Disclosure.
On Money and Else goal's is to provide a forum for personal finance and many other personal ideas including investment ideas. Articles, columns, message board posts and other features should not be construed as investment advice, nor does their appearance imply an endorsement by me of any specific security or trading strategy. An investor's best course of action must be based on individual circumstances. At any moment I might own any of the stocks I write about, and I might hold long and short positions.
The aging countries will be looking at trimming working people’s benefits and increase dividends from investments.
Another reality will be: the disastrous economic policies and influence been supported from the IMF, WB and WTO agreements. Clearly biased the agrement are biased to favor mega consolidation in corporate structure, simulating the mega corporations of Russian despotic and authoritarian caliber. The proportionality of distribution of capital and access to economic developments will be limited. Specially, affects citizens eager for democracy. These influences, hopefully, while they are growing, the emerging economies will be able to be more adaptive and efficient than the old word econmies with risk averse directives.
The wealth distribution will continue its link to education and circles of nepotism. As past history reminds us and hold its truth over centuries. We can assume one tenth of this group will have access to the majority of what it is produced, the other ninety per cent will produce at a discount, benefiting even a smaller group. This reality has a very solid base in the present transactional system. One of the most evident is class warfare, laws that benefit very small groups, usually those who control the assets. But, it has diverse shapes, and the one will affect emerging markets will more similar to a medieval system. The one-tenth imposed to farmers from privileged-granted owners, higher taxation to lower earners or tithe will be more similar. The stated formula affects individuals in all economies. It will be safe to say, three hundred million people will enter this process in the next five years in the AP area, and another 100 million in diverse areas of the EC as the EU evolves. A new consideration is the integration in Latin America, and it seems to start to take place. The United States of Latin America is getting into shape.
This is at least a twenty year boom for those uniting into a borderless single market!
If growth continues at present rates of five to ten percent of gross domestic product in emerging markets, and its wealth distribution follows present patterns, this is a very solid argument for investors to buy into the equation.
What opportunities this represents to a dollar investor.
I briefly address what I consider to be above average return versus the US overall markets.
These are my top three for the next 20 years:
1) Raw materials, global demand in commodities from the growing, establish or diminishing economies will continue, incremental demand in the emerging markets area will increase producer profitability for the next two decades. The choice here will be to target a five percent of a portfolio in places like I-shares (IGE). To increment the returns, add a five percent from strong companies from the countries in which commodities are a major source of income as Australia, South Africa, Canada and Brazil, for a total of 10 ten percent of any allocation.
2) Energy consumption will continue to increase at above average levels. Crude Oil will continue to be the energy of choice due to its established roots, plus the secondary products from oil, as plastic materials will continue to be the product of choice in 70% of consumer items. Electric energy production from alternative sources is increasing in Europe, this increase will only reduce the construction of nuclear and probably natural gas plants, but it can take another decade until starts to make a dent. In addition, around the planet goals in alternative energy production are too small.
My choice here goes to Canada, specially the energy trusts, with strong leverages and good tract records paying to trust holder dividends for risk.
To complement Canada I will add China and India oil companies a non-managed fund such as i-Shares of the Dow Jones energy sector IYE, or the Spiders XLE, the beta and pricing in both baskets, are not that divergent, the Dow Jones, due to the larger sponsorship has a slight advantage over the S&P Spiders. Again this puts a currency fluctuation in the portfolio, with a ten percent allocation, makes for a riskier investment that can be compensated by re-investing the dividends from the trusts.
The risk on trust is large and fluctuations in share value can run as high as fifty percent.
3) Growing Global Economies, it might see redundant, localized investment in the areas of growth, it is my assessment it can produce above average returns. China, India and Brazil will be the three majors to invest for growth, if the EU starts to expand some smaller countries of the EU sphere, will low wages and competitive inside the euro market will be also a good choice. A non-managed fund for each country with addition of the top three companies in each country, it is my opinion will provide above average returns over the next two decades. Again this indicates a vote in a dollar that will continue to pay the price of poor US fiscal discipline. Everything has a limit and the dollar at $0.75 to the Euro has reached a substantial low limit.
Disclosure.
On Money and Else goal's is to provide a forum for personal finance and many other personal ideas including investment ideas. Articles, columns, message board posts and other features should not be construed as investment advice, nor does their appearance imply an endorsement by me of any specific security or trading strategy. An investor's best course of action must be based on individual circumstances. At any moment I might own any of the stocks I write about, and I might hold long and short positions.
Shifting Risk
Shifting Risk, is the most concerning situation for most economic conservative voters, as we look ahead in capital creation.
One might think of this as counter intuitive, it is not. This sift should part of the conversation and forecasting. As risk shifts from government to individuals, at larger levels than it should.
The risk of abuse also increases, as we are experiencing increase the demand for regulation, making the retention of capital an incremental and riskier event. Many of those risks are been shifted to a larger and non-economically and financially qualified groups of society, that, eventually, will react to swings of risk and pricing with extreme set of decision versus a balance analysis and solid knowledge.
Government as it is been developed in the past 30 years is becoming a mammoth of restrains and walking away from its responsibilities as a citizen entity.
The danger is taking place, is mostly due to the size of power exercised proportionally from a very small group to take advantage of a very large group, creating serious challenges to free markets.
The amount of subsidies to this small powerful group, versus the amount of subsidies to the majority of citizens, today, is so disproportional that might surprise many how the balance will be corrected. The laws of regressions apply to egregious abusers equally in time.
Reference link: http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P97298.asp
One might think of this as counter intuitive, it is not. This sift should part of the conversation and forecasting. As risk shifts from government to individuals, at larger levels than it should.
The risk of abuse also increases, as we are experiencing increase the demand for regulation, making the retention of capital an incremental and riskier event. Many of those risks are been shifted to a larger and non-economically and financially qualified groups of society, that, eventually, will react to swings of risk and pricing with extreme set of decision versus a balance analysis and solid knowledge.
Government as it is been developed in the past 30 years is becoming a mammoth of restrains and walking away from its responsibilities as a citizen entity.
The danger is taking place, is mostly due to the size of power exercised proportionally from a very small group to take advantage of a very large group, creating serious challenges to free markets.
The amount of subsidies to this small powerful group, versus the amount of subsidies to the majority of citizens, today, is so disproportional that might surprise many how the balance will be corrected. The laws of regressions apply to egregious abusers equally in time.
Reference link: http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P97298.asp
Sunday, January 02, 2005
On Money and Else
Risk Shift
The nature of organized government demanding taxes by using legal force, must be purposeful in the use those taxes in name of the taxed, or if those taxes are not providing safety net as services and security in all areas, from health, work, personal security to strong education. It must not be any doubt that taxes used in disproportional ways to benefit small groups, and no providing any of the safety nets need it to secure and advance personal risk, is another way of class warfare directed towards those in which their safety nets are eliminated in the name of some good sounding two letter word favoring those that are secured the power of taxation.
The nature of organized government demanding taxes by using legal force, must be purposeful in the use those taxes in name of the taxed, or if those taxes are not providing safety net as services and security in all areas, from health, work, personal security to strong education. It must not be any doubt that taxes used in disproportional ways to benefit small groups, and no providing any of the safety nets need it to secure and advance personal risk, is another way of class warfare directed towards those in which their safety nets are eliminated in the name of some good sounding two letter word favoring those that are secured the power of taxation.
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