We are all Greeks

Black swans are flying, the big question is where they will land.

We know all about the optimistic talks taking place about the Greek debt negotiations.

To me, the present ¨all is good¨attitude is a sign to seriously worry.

SERIOUSLY.

Greece, as many small countries under the supervision of big countries, got out of hand and now needs a big spanking.

The problem is how hard this spanking needs to be to correct its bad behavior.

Today, I heard a father, until two years ago,employed in a large govermental entity, crying for food to feed his five kids.

Under fascist and later pseudo elected governments, the greek law makers and central bank machinists provided superior advantages to many citizens in Greece to live far beyong their means, and to a narrow band of its citizens incredible benefits for no work. In the process a few in the elite accumulated inimaginable personal wealth, a copy cat of the government induced class warfare American style. To top the ouzo cake they cooked the books like any well respected crook with power (not all cooks are crooks, nor all crooks are cooks).

This pernicious influence of malversing funds for self enrichement has created a social acceptance that percolates as easy thru Greek society as water does thru a tea filter.

Evading many of the basic social responsibilities of any civil society, are laking in Greece today. Paying taxes and fair minded pay for work rewards, are NOT accepted practices. Today Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal, France, are not normal societies as a civil person imagines.

For many governments not paing its bills in a fair period say 90 days, has become normal practice, for local governments to keep employes working for months with no pay is normal. Thus young adults that are learning this behavior consider normal not to pay their bill for years, as I learned when I asked around. As an anecdote, I asked a small business person who continues to do work for a local government even if he does not get pay in twelve months, if he considers this payent delay a normal and healthy way of doing business, he answer was interesting, he thought it advantegeous for him becuase it makes it very diffult for others to compete in governments contracts, and he can do the work, also he does not fully pay his employees until the town pays him. As he said the employees come to work becuase eventually we all get paid. A very pernicious way to operate in society. He found this as normal as drinking water.

Many of present Greek social pratices have become laughing currency for comedians. In y opinion, for a good reason. Like, if you have enough money, your governement tax man will work for you, they will help you do not pay taxes, legally!!!

Who tells the truth!

Time as the truth teller!

Now that the truth about Greek book cooking its national debt is out, calculators cannot keep up running with the massive financial discrepancies encountered.

Here we have a country that was granted more than six billions euros in credit, and open more than 8 billion dollar of credit lines to build stadiums for the Olympic games, with full knowledge the Greek economy could not collect enough taxes to pay a third of the interest need it to cover the going forward costs of those bonds, let alone the principal amounts.

Who needs to pay, the borrower or the lender!

The borrower who does it with the understanding. I believe all those Harvard educated Greeks, must retain some knowledge from their days on elite schools, must have know that as borrowers they will have a difficult time to pay for the fun Olimpic party.

Or the lender who knows, if things get sour, eventually it will force the governement to fund any discrepancy with the borrower.

As the sour mash continued to ferment in Greece, money kept pouring into Greece as Ouzo in a weeding. The country continued expending and expanding, corruption keep growing, politicians and friends became very rich and people did see it.

To spalsh a little of hope to the populace, accounting practices advised by the best and brightest, gave a rosy picure of Greece, among those brilliant minds were global economic and investment policy consultants from Goldman Sachs, always magnificent and brilliant creators of cover ups for financial irregularities. Goldman did its deed for the Greeks and worked until the day of recokning arrived.

We should be glad Greece is a country with good mediterranean weather and many months of warmth, you will not need more than a tunic most of the year, so the emperor´s clothes if lost, should not be a big problem.

To spruce the good looks of the truth telling God´s who created such mess, beards and tunics can get a quick trim, we can give a power wash to Zeus and he will look like brand new, ready to toil for its 18 months of pay during a 12 month calendar year. Allt his without financial engineering, and no Gold man left behind.

Real bad numbers!

The financial numbers for Greece are real bad. Really.

Greece balance sheet cannot cope in any shape or form withe present paymentes. Even if the troika (German, French, FMI) forgave the present debt service, greece old debt service was already so large, still it would not be possible for greece to pay it back. Such immense mess was the reason why Greek central bank officials called upon Goldman Sacks to do the cover up job elegantly. Thus Greece could enter the EU and Goldman become the new Greek Central Bank.

For the past 30 years, Greece was barely covering up its debt service, for the past ten years the debt service is 25 times larger than 10 years ago.

All parties in present debt negotiations, have a strong self interest to get it right first, their banks hold most of the debt and the bail ot will go directly to them, and not the Greek governement.

At best, Greece will need to take 10 years of massive social distress, transfer the little they have to private banks, and suffer thru massive unployement until the national income is in line with countries of its caliber, in comparison to its neighbors Greece needs at least a 70% reduction in minimum wage pay.

Top that with the present revenue debacle, less than 20% of businesses are in compliance with their taxes, and most small businesses do not pay taxes, anthey prefer to bribe the local tax man than to pay taxes.

The pain is going to be similar to a hundred nail cruxifixion for most Greeks.

The next Greek governemet, the present impossed government by Germany France and the US will not do much to help most greeks, the next government should follow the play book of Iceland, let the bonds default.For Greece the pill also need to have a ¨get out of the eurozone¨ ingredient at least for next fiive years, inmediately devaluate their currency 80% and implement a massive tax collection reform.

The saddest story of the deficits and the real debt of Greece is that will have to put the country under massive social adjustments, that based on the nationalistic tones of the protests, a civil war should not be discounted.